Is the third war on Lebanon being prepared?


Monitor the American-Israeli scenario and its expected applications in Lebanon. This is war, Trump is more eager to throw himself in the lap of the Israeli plots that his former counterpart, George W. Bush.

Abdel Bari Atwan

As the city of Reqqa, the official capital of the Islamic State, fell into the hands of the Syrian Democratic Forces with the help of around 900 Marine corps and an American air cover, the American preparations began for the most important and most dangerous war against Iran, in an attempt at modifying the latter’s regime, and eliminating its strong arm in the region, Hezbollah.

“Hezbollah – which defeated Israel in two wars, the first of which was the liberation of South Lebanon in 2000, while the second consisted of confronting an Israeli attack in 2006 – is now at the heart of a new American targeting as it now holds the same rank occupied by the Islamic State, ISIL, through the past three years at the top [priorities] of the American strategy and its allies in Tel Aviv. There are a number of indications in this regard mainly the surprising commemoration of the 34th anniversary of the US Marines’ base bombing in Beirut in 1983 where 241 US troops were killed in a martyr-suicide operation carried out by a cell affiliated to Hezbollah.

“None of the American presidents who ruled before President Donald Trump remembered this martyr operation and none of them celebrated it or even spoke about it. For this reason, Trump’s latest tweets where he said that his country “won’t forget the US soldiers who were killed by Hezbollah in Beirut…” constitute the most important sign to his intention of escalation against Iran and thus Hezbollah. Therefore, Lebanon will constitute the small confrontation arena in order to subsequently move to the biggest arena in the entire region.

“In parallel, Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli Minister of War, stepped in and accused Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, of giving his orders “personally” to fire two rockets last Saturday at the occupied Golan Heights… The politics of escalation that Trump is currently adopting against Iran constitute a “declaration of war” and a complete rejection of any kind of diplomacy…

“In short, we could be standing on the verge of the “third” Lebanese war with an ongoing search to find a pretext to ignite its mesh. Lieberman’s talk about Hezbollah firing rockets at the occupied Golan – knowing that the Israeli army’s leadership denied that – is one of these pretexts. Indeed, the Israeli-American fabrication of pretexts is well known and doesn’t require a proof. Referring to the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction is enough.

“The question being raised in the western military circles concerns the way that Israel will employ to fight this war: Will it be similar to the first war of 1982 when the Israeli forces and tanks went all the way to Beirut? Or will the model of the second war in 2006 be followed, i.e. relying on the Israeli air supremacy and destroying Hezbollah’s rockets and military bases? Some analyses are alluding to a mixture of both theories, i.e. a land incursion coupled with extensive air raids.

“It seems that Hezbollah is very prepared for that as it will be firing all the rockets it possesses at Israeli cities and targets in the depth of the occupied Palestine. Some say that there are more than 150,000 rockets. At the same time, [Hezbollah] will follow the model of the attrition war that the PLO and the Lebanese national forces allied to it had applied, which means that the cost of the Israeli incursion will be very high on the human and military levels.

“The new development that could distinguish any new Israeli war on Lebanon from the wars preceding it is that the Lebanese army won’t be a bystander this time and it will fight by the side of the Hezbollah forces because the majority of the army is loyal to President Aoun, Sayed Nasrallah’s first and most trusted ally…

“Israel has a severe, strategic concern as a result of the increased Iranian military presence on the Syrian lands. There are pieces of news indicating that Iran is planning on establishing marine bases in Tartous and air bases near the Damascus Airport. This means that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will be on the Mediterranean shores. The other part of the same strategic concern is motivated by the presence of the Revolutionary Guards in South Syria and facing the occupied Golan Heights, which exposes the hill to their rockets as well as Hezbollah’s rockets.

“Trump is currently working, through his allies at the US Congress’ Foreign Affairs committee, on obtaining a regulation allowing to place Hezbollah entirely, and not only its military wing, on the terrorism list in addition to imposing new sanctions on anyone who cooperates with or finances the Party, or serves to recruit members for it. This constitutes a main step at the level of the escalation policy that Trump is currently adopting. This explains the “surprising opening” of the file of the attack on the Marines in Beirut in 1983.

“Winning this war won’t be easy for America and Israel. Iran’s [failure to abide by] the American pressures for launching new negotiations to amend the nuclear agreement will serve as a pretext to ignite this war. Indeed, Iran will consider this step as a provocation and an insult and it will likely reject it. Iran has most likely learned the lesson of the American demands during the days of Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, regarding the weapons of mass destruction that he had. This ended with the destruction of these weapons and also the destruction and occupation of Iraq.

“Monitor the American-Israeli scenario and its expected applications in Lebanon. This is war. Anyone who says otherwise is ignorant of the modern American history and has not been convinced yet that Trump is more eager to throw himself in the lap of the Israeli plots that his former counterpart, George W. Bush. The days are between us.”